New England Patriots overall prediction winner
The New England Patriots posted their second losing season in three years in 2022. New England finished the year 8-9, third in the AFC East and missing the playoffs.
Can the Patriots right the ship and return to the postseason in 2023?
Total New England Patriots Win Odds via BetMGM
More than 7.5 -105
Below 7.5 -115
Current NFL Futures Odds
Summary of the 2022 season
The 2022 New England Patriots had a strange year. New England went 5-4 through the first nine games of the season, then went 3-5 after its bye week and missed the playoffs for the second time in three years. The Patriots coaching staff has been a story all season (and not in a good way) as New England eschews traditional coordinator titles and has former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in charge of the offense and the son of head coach Bill Belichick, Steve Belichick and Jerrod Mayo. Pats QB defense Mac Jones He struggled at times last season as he averaged 2,997 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 14 games. Jones averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, had an 84.8 passer rating and a pitiful 36.2 QBR. How he performs will likely be a major factor in deciding whether New England surpasses its 2023 season win total.
Preview of the 2023 season
Exit of key players: WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Nelson Agholor, RT Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris, LT Yodny Cajuste, QB Brian Hoyer
Key players added: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, RT Riley Reiff, TE Mike Gesicki, TE Anthony Firkser, LT Calvin Anderson, CB Christian Gonzalez (1st round pick), EDGE Keion White (2nd round pick), G/C Jake Andrews (4th round pick) OL Sidy Sow (fourth round pick)
2023 could be another long year for New England’s offensive line. The Patriots lost one of their best offensive skill players in running back Damien Harris, who signed with the Bills this offseason. Last year, Harris formed half of a backfield duo that included Ramunder Stevenson. Stevenson will become a role player again, and his numbers last season (1,040 rushing yards, 421 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns) may indicate he’s ready for that role. The Patriots once again added several spots in free agency this offseason, signing former Dolphin Mike Jesicki and Falcon Anthony Fraxer. Both will be behind Hunter Henry on the depth chart, and it makes me wonder why they’re giving up valuable cap space to multiple backups. New England replaced outgoing right tackle Isaiah Wayne with free agent tackle Riley Reiff. Reiff has been plagued by inconsistent play and may struggle in New England because the Patriots have three rookie offensive linemen on their two-deep depth chart. When it comes to pure talent on the offensive side of the ball, New England is likely last in the AFC East in 2023.
The Patriots’ defense wasn’t a problem last year, as New England ranked fifth in opponents’ yards per game (5.0) and seventh in opponents’ points per game (.318). The Pats re-signed several key defenders in cornerbacks Jonathan Jones, Miles Bryant and Jalen Mills, as well as linebacker Javon Bentley and safety Jabrill Peppers. New England also added a number of potential impact defensive players in the draft in first-round pick Christian Gonzalez from Oregon and second-rounder Kevin White from Georgia Tech. The only problem is that Gonzalez will likely be asked to start right away at left cornerback, and third-round cornerback Kevin White and third-rounder Mapo Marte will be second on the depth chart at their respective positions, meaning they could start before Start the game under pressure. It’s also worth noting that the Patriots will face a much tougher schedule in 2023 than they did in 2022, so they’ll likely experience some defensive regression this season.
Key takeaways from coaching: Matt Patricia, senior football consultant/offensive line coach, Nick Keely, tight ends coach
Key Coaching Promotions/Extras: Bill O’Brien, offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach, Adrian Kelm, offensive line coach, Will Loving, offensive ends coach, Joe Judge, assistant coach, Ross Douglas, wide receivers coach (promoted)
In a shocking turn of events, there were legitimate questions about New England’s coaching staff last season. The questions weren’t about the Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, but the staff that he has gathered. For some reason, Belichick had former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former special teams coordinator Joe Judge serve as the hands-on offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, respectively. That could be one of the reasons New England QB Mac Jones struggled last year and why the second-year signal caller looked for help outside the organization. Belichick came up with a plan this offseason, hiring former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator. O’Brien spent five years on the Patriots’ coaching staff from 2007 to 2011, serving as the team’s offensive coordinator during his final season in Foxboro. He should be a significant upgrade over Judge and Patricia as O’Brien will take on both men’s roles in 2023.
No one on the Patriots coaching staff will hold the official title of defensive coordinator in 2023. Those duties will be split between defensive line coaches Jerrod Mayo and Steve Belichick. Bill Belichick will also have significant input into defensive schemes and game plans each week. Mayo had the opportunity to interview for open head coaching positions at other franchises in the offseason, but decided to re-sign with New England as the defensive line coach. Steve Belichick called the defensive plays last season and will continue in that role in 2023. Steve’s brother, Brian Belichick, is the Patriots’ safeties coach. Both sons are longtime New England head coach Bill Belichick. Belichick himself will be 71 years old this offseason and will have to do one of the best coaching jobs of his career for this team to make the playoffs in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The New England Patriots play in the AFC West and NFC East for their non-division opponents this season. They are playing for their 17th game in the NFC South, and that will be a home game against New Orleans in Week 5. NFL in 2023. The Patriots could end up in a division with three of the bottom 10 teams, and they play four of their last seven games on the road after their bye week in Week 11. Sledding will be tough for New England all season. .
The Patriots have records of 7-9, 10-7 and 8-9 over the past three seasons. Mack Jones has been the starting QB the past two years and has a 16-15 record and an average passer rating of 89.0. This will likely be a year for McJones, and if he plays poorly again, New England may be looking for a new quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. I think McJones is more likely to flame out than take a big step. He doesn’t really do any of the things exceptionally well, and he’s not good enough on the rim to overcome his athletic deficiencies. By my count, the Patriots will play a better QB than McJones in 12 of their 17 games. That doesn’t mean the Patriots lose all of those games, it just cuts their margin of error by a lot. I know it might seem silly to bet on Bill Belichick, but Tom Brady is long gone and the Pats have gone just 25-25 since he left. I’m keeping tabs on the New England Patriots regular season win total in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS UNDER 7.5 WINS -115