October 3, 2023

2023 Wisconsin Badgers Over/Under Season Win Prediction and Total Betting Odds


Wisconsin’s total win prediction

The Wisconsin Badgers were disappointing in 2022. Wisconsin went 7-6, fired head coach Paul Chryst midway through the season, and ended up defeating Oklahoma State 17-24 in a bowl guarantee.

With new head coach Luke Fickell, can the Badgers surpass their 2022 regular season win total in 2023?

Total Wisconsin Badgers Win Odds Over/Under via BetMGM

More than 8.5 -135

Below 8.5 + 115

Current NCAAF Futures Odds

Summary of the 2022 season

Wisconsin got off to a bad start in 2022 and never really seemed to recover. The Badgers lost a home game to a mediocre Washington Stae team in Week 2, beat a terrible New Mexico State team the following week, and then lost three of their next four. Longtime Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst was fired amid the debacle, and Badgers defensive coordinator Jim Leonhardt was named interim head coach. Wisconsin didn’t fare much better under Leonhard as the club went 4-3 to finish the season, but dropped rivalry games to Iowa and Minnesota. Wisconsin has long had the identity of a team that runs the ball and plays tough defense. Last season, the Badgers ranked 48th in yards per rushing attempt and 70th in opposing yards per punt. 2023 will certainly be different as Wisconsin has a new head coach and has added several potential impact players through the transfer portal.

Preview of the 2023 season

Exit of key players: C Joe Tipman, NT Keanu Benton, OLB Nick Herbig, OL Tyler Beach, OT Logan Brown, QB Graham Mertz, QB Deacon Hill, S Titus Toler, RB Julius Davis, LB Spencer Lytle

Key players added: WR CJ Williams, QB Tanner Mordecai, QB Nick Evers, C Jake Renfro, EDGE Darian Varner, WR Bryson Green, QB Braedyn Locke, C Joe Huber, DB Jason Maitre, EDGE Jeff Pietrowski

Wisconsin faced an incredible quarterback last season. Sophomore Graham Mertz threw for just 2,136 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while completing just 57.3 percent of his passes. Badgers coach Paul Chryst had to accept Mertz’s setbacks, and now both men will be at different schools in 2023. New Badgers head coach Luke Fickell has been very active on the transfer portal this season. He brought in three quarterbacks who should challenge each other for the starting job. The most likely starter will be the former SMU QB Tanner Mordechai. Mordecai will be a senior in 2023 and is coming off back-to-back seasons in which he threw for 3,500+ yards and 33+ touchdowns. He will have plenty of targets to throw to as Wisconsin added wide receivers CJ Williams from USC, Will Pawling from Cincinnati and Bryson Green from Oklahoma State. Of the three, the most intriguing is probably CJ Williams, who was buried on USC’s depth chart last season. Williams has the size (6’2”, 188 pounds) and pedigree (meaning four stars) to have a breakout season for the Badgers in 2023.

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Wisconsin’s defensive line will have to be nearly flawless last season for this team to compete. It wasn’t like that, so they didn’t. This year, the defense probably won’t be as good as the offense should be more dynamic. Still, Luke Fickell and his staff added a pair of defensive players who should emerge in starting roles for the Badgers in 2023. Darian Warner Should move to the right defensive end spot for Wisconsin, and he’s coming off a season in which he recorded 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in 10 games for the Owls in 2022. Mitter recorded one sack, one interception and six passes defensed for the Eagles last season. Both Warner and Mitter should contribute positively to a Wisconsin defense that will have something to prove in 2023.

Key takeaways from coaching: Head Coach Paul Chryst Interim Head Coach/Defensive Coordinator Jim Leonhardt Offensive Coordinator/Quarantines Coach Bobby Engram

Key Coaching Promotions/Extras: Luke Fickell, head coach, Mike Tressel, defensive coordinator/linebackers coach, Phil Longo, offensive coordinator/linebackers coach

The hiring of former Cincinnati, Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell was one of the best coaching hires of the college football offseason. Fickell went 57-18 as head coach of the Bearcats and even made the College Football Playoff in 2021 after going undefeated in the regular season. It was the first (and still only) time a Group of 5 team made the College Football Playoff. It stands to reason that if Fickell was this successful with the resources of Cincinnati, he could do even better with the resources of a Big Ten team like Wisconsin. He needs to get the Badgers into contention for the Big Ten West right away.

The second most intriguing coaching hire for Wisconsin was former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Luongo, who was hired as Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Luongo led a North Carolina offense that averaged 8.3 yards per pass last season, which ranked 19th in the FBS. Luongo was an OC/QB coach with the Tar Heels for four years, and during that time he did amazing work with Sam Howell and Derrick May. Phil Luongo was one of the most sought-after coordinators in college football last season, and his offensive acumen is a big reason why. With the addition of Fickell and Luongo to Wisconsin’s coaching staff, several quarterbacks and wide receivers were slated to transfer to the program. Wisconsin’s offense is expected to be much more dynamic than it has been in the past decade, which could bode well for the team’s chances in the weaker Big Ten West next season.

NCAA football over/under predictions

According to SI.com, Wisconsin has the 90th toughest schedule out of 133 FBS teams. The Badgers play in the Big Ten West and will not face Michigan or Penn State in 2023. Instead, Wisconsin has two relatively easy opponents in Rutgers and Indiana and a strong opponent in Ohio State. I lost Wisconsin to Ohio State, but the game is in Madison and should be competitive.

If Wisconsin goes at least 6-1 or better going into the Ohio State game, it has a very good chance to win nine regular season games and surpass that total. Wisconsin’s toughest tests in the first half of the season will be road tilts against Purdue and Illinois and a home game against Iowa. I think the Badgers will win two of three of those, which would make the club 6-2 with four games to go (assuming Wisconsin loses to Ohio State). From there, Wisconsin only has to go 3-1 against Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota. I think this is very possible. Ideally, Wisconsin will be 9-2 heading into the Minnesota game, as the Badgers have lost two straight and three of five to the Gophers after beating them 14 straight years prior to that game. In a year of many changes, I think Wisconsin’s offense will take the Big Ten by storm, and they will compete for the Big Ten West title and a berth in the Big Ten Championship. It will look different, but I like the Badgers to win nine or more regular season games for the first time since 2019 and surpass that total in 2023.

Total NCAA Football Over/Under Win Predictions: WISCONSIN BADGERS OVER 8.5 WINS -135

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