February 22, 2024

Dolphins at Chiefs NFL Wild Card Over/Under Prediction


With freezing conditions for Saturday night at Arrowhead Stadium and the total sitting at 43.5, what's the best bet for the Dolphins' wild card game against the Chiefs tonight at 8:10pm ET?

Chances of playing and betting

143 Miami Dolphins (+4.5) at 144 Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5; o/u 43.5)

8:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 13, 2024

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

TV: Peacock

Dolphins at Chiefs: Public Bettors Split on Spread

Our NFL Public Betting Information page shows that 51% of public bettors are currently backing the Chiefs. However, this information may change throughout the day, so be sure to check the link for the most up-to-date public betting data.

Waddle questionable for playoff opener

Jaylen Waddell (ankle) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Chiefs. Waddell has missed two straight games with a sprained ankle. However, a limited practice roster Tuesday through Thursday will give him a chance to return to Miami for the start of the postseason.

If Waddell is cleared for Saturday's 8pm ET start, he will be in a position to reclaim a key role in his team's offense. In 14 games before missing time with an ankle injury, Waddell posted a 4-1,014-72 line on 104 targets. Head coach Mike McDaniel said Thursday that Waddell hasn't experienced any setbacks this week, according to ESPN.com's Marcel-Louis-Jacques. He expressed optimism about the pass catchers' chances to return to the field this weekend.

Sneed on Track to Play vs. Dolphins

L'Jarius Sneed (Calf) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. Snead was sidelined for Kansas City's regular-season finale with a calf injury, but now it looks like he'll suit up in the wild-card round. His availability should be a big boost for a defense preparing for Tyreek Hill (ankle) and Jaylen Waddle (ankle).

The total has ended in 12 of Miami's last 16 road games

Miami is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games

The total has been an UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 home games

Kansas City is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Miami

Dolphins at Chiefs Prediction:

Take the following. Assuming they actually play tonight, the conditions at Arrowhead Stadium will limit both teams' passing games. Both sides will need to rely on their defense and running game, though Miami may struggle to do so with seven starters on defense. At some point, the Chiefs will have to fix their problems holding the ball in the passing game, but for now, they can rely on their defense and ground attack.

The total has been undershot in 15 of Kansas City's last 21 games overall and is almost 10-1 in their last 11 home games. The under is also 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 conference games and 5-1 in their last six in the month of January.

Dolphins at Chiefs NFL Prediction: Under 43.5

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