February 21, 2024

German auto industry: From locomotive to ballast?

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The difficulties in the automotive industry are weighing on the German economy, which has been declining for three months

From the locomotive of one of the world’s most robust economies to the emblem of a sector in trouble: this is what we’re talking aboutGerman automobile industrywho suffered a Production fell by 9%, according to the Wiesbaden statistics office. A decline that affected Germany’s entire industrial sector, which fell by 0.8% in July for the third month in a row. A decline above the original estimate of -0.5% and expected to settle at around -0.4% at the end of 2023, at least according to the research institute’s forecasts Ifo Institute. There are several factors for this, starting with the increase in energy prices and interest rates, but also with the decline in trade with Germany’s most important export markets, especially China. A situation that is added to that in the automotive industry Relocationsconsidering that 5.6 million cars were produced in Germany in 2012, compared to 3.6 in 2022.

more moves?

The German business newspaper Handelsblatt a few months ago he had warned of the growing number of vehicles produced abroad by German giants such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Opel: from 8.6 million cars in 2012 to over 10 million in 2022. The forecasts for the future are not rosy, since Apart from the fact that it will not be possible to reach the volume of around 6 million vehicles produced on German soil per year, it will also be difficult to maintain a threshold above 4 million. This is because analysts are predicting more movesafter Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz’s joint record profit of 49.2 billion euros in 2022. There is good news: production in Germany is expected to rise again in parallel with the normalization of logistics and supply, but at least until 2027 4.2 million vehicles remain.

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